Triglyceride glucose index, pediatric NAFLD fibrosis index, and triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio are the most predictive markers of the metabolically unhealthy phenotype in overweight/obese adolescent boys

Introduction: The prevalence of obesity constantly increases worldwide and definitely increases the risk of premature death in early adulthood. While there is no treatment yet with proven efficacy for the metabolic clamp such as arterial hypertension, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, diabetes type 2, and fatty liver disease, it is imperative to find a way to decrease cardiometabolic complications. Early prevention strategies beginning in childhood are the most logical step to reduce future cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Therefore, the aim of the current study is to determine the most sensitive and specific predictive markers of the metabolically unhealthy phenotype with high cardiometabolic risk in overweight/obese adolescent boys.

Methods: This study was carried out at the Ternopil Regional Children's hospital (Western Ukraine) and involved 254 randomly chosen adolescent overweight or obese boys [median age was 16.0 (15.0,16.1) years]. A control group of 30 healthy children with proportional body weight comparable in gender and age to the main group was presented. A list of anthropometrical markers with biochemical values of carbohydrate and lipid metabolism with hepatic enzymes was determined. All overweight/obese boys were divided into three groups: 51.2% of the boys with metabolic syndrome (MetS) based on the IDF criteria; 19.7% of the boys were metabolically healthy obese (MHO) without hypertension, dyslipidemia, and hyperglycemia; and the rest of the boys (29.1%) were classified as metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) with only one criterion (hypertension, dyslipidemia, or hyperglycemia).

Results: Based on multiple logistic regression analysis that included all anthropometric and biochemical values and calculated indexes in boys from the MHO group and MetS, it was revealed that the maximum likelihood in the prediction of MetS makes the combination of triglyceride glucose index, pediatric nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis index (PNFI), and triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (R2 =0.713, p<0.000). By tracing the receiver operating characteristic curve, the model is confirmed as a good predictor of MetS (AUC=0.898, odds ratio=27.111 percentage correct=86.03%) in overweight and obese boys.

Conclusion: Triglyceride glucose index, pediatric NAFLD fibrosis index, and triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio are a valuable combination of predictive markers of the metabolically unhealthy phenotype in Ukrainian overweight/obese boy